A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
